By Yiler Huang

In the future, we may no longer see human workers, instead, only robot workers.

The Robot Curve is the theory ​​Marty Neumeier introduced in his article The Robot Curve. In the theory of the Robot Curve, robots and AI will take over human’s jobs, from some common non-skilled work areas to some of (or most of) the skilled jobs. In the article, Neumeier also said that we humans are not taking the necessary actions to avoid being replaced by robots, but are actually making it easier to be replaced. This happens because we are forcing the students in school to use some inefficient ways of learning (or learning unuseful things). No one could stop the Robot Curve, we could only adapt to it and try our best to stay on the top of it.

The Robot Curve is a concept Neumeier introduced to explain what areas of jobs would be replaced by robots and AI with the passage of time. Most jobs will slowly move down the Robot Curve and eventually become a job that robots could do.

The lowest level of the Robot Curve is “robotic work” like factory work and house builders, requiring almost no skill. These jobs are repetitive, and almost every person could do them even if they are not formally educated. The next level of the Curve above “robotic work” is “rote work” like cashiers and fast food service people. These are jobs that would need workers to do some kind of exchange with their customers. These kinds of jobs may require a certain level of education but almost all educated people could do these kinds of jobs. The next higher level is “skilled work” like doctors, chefs etc. These kinds of jobs usually require high levels of skills and some thinking. People who do these kinds of jobs are usually highly educated and have practiced their skills very well. This kind of work can usually only be performed by specially trained professionals, and these workers are not easily interchangeable.

The apex of the Robot Curve is “creative work”, involving jobs like programmers, directors, artists, etc. This kind of work can be somewhat difficult to formally train and involves processes which are novel and non-repetitive. These people must be good at creating new ideas that don't exist in the world. Some of the famous examples of these kinds of people would be Elon Musk (CEO of Tesla and SpaceX), Bill Gates (founder and former CEO of Microsoft), and Steve Jobs (founder and former CEO of Apple). “The programmers of tomorrow are the wizards of the future.” Said Gabe Newell, CEO of Steam and Valve. These people are on the top of the Robot Curve, because they were creative enough so they could make something out of nothing. They were all good examples of people who have the metaskills Neumeier mentioned in The Robot Curve.

Of great importance to the people of today and tomorrow, The Robot Curve explains that robots are replacing more and more skilled jobs. Neumeier introduced robot pharmacists as a strong example that shows us that the “highly skilled jobs” in the common sense are already going to the lower level of the Robot Curve, and he also declared that this was only the beginning of the Robot Curve shift. This means that robots will take away many of our jobs one by one mercilessly. The Robot Curve so far sounds like a horrifying tsunami that blows every job away. However, according to Neumeier’s research, he believes that Robot Curve doesn’t only destroy jobs but also creates many business opportunities for humans.

In order to catch new opportunities brought by automation and AI, Neumeier discusses a set of metaskills that helps people to stay on the top of the Robot Curve. These metaskills are: Feeling, Dreaming, Making, and Learning. I would like to use Elon Musk as an example. He learned a lot and efficiently in his area, and he dreamed of making his idea Tesla come true. Eventually, he made (“Making” in metaskills) his dream come true by putting efforts in. Elon Musk is a controversial figure, but undeniably, he is standing on the top of the Robot curve now. In his example, we could see how important the metaskills are in future if you want to stay on the top of the robot curve. Neumeier states that the current education system couldn’t teach students these metaskills. Therefore, he emphasizes the problems in the education system now.

The Robot Curve states that we need an update on the education system. Neumeier said the education we give to the students now is not going to help them to stay on the top level of Robot Curve. Instead, it is causing the students to be replaced by robots and AI more easily. The reason why is that what students learn in school now are mostly academic knowledge and quizzes, which means we are just making students robots that only remember things and perform in quizzes which are removed from the real world. Neumeier said humans already have the ability of making robots and AI, what is the deal of teaching us humans how to be a robot? Therefore, Neumeier said schools should be teaching social intelligence, system logic, and making things because these are the things robots and AIs are poor at. He also said “Students should engage in project-based learning, rather than subject-based learning.” because he thought knowledge is just a tool that helps people to complete something. He thought people should be learning things by doing different things instead of just remembering things that people would never use again. In subject-based learning, people usually learn from textbooks and what teachers say. In that way, it is hard to let students connect things they have learned in their life. In project-based learning, people learn by doing things instead of looking at a textbook. The benefit of this kind of learning style is that it is easy to create strong connections between what students learn and their life and make the things they learn a real tool they could use in their life.

The robot curve would be unstoppable in the future, the only things we could do is to make ourselves harder to replace by learning and using the metaskills, and become creative in different areas. I believe that many of the highly skilled jobs we could think of would be automated in future. The Robot Curve is not just something that is going to happen in future but it is already happening. It would be continuously creating and destroying jobs. If we have the ability to use the metaskills well and be creative, it would be easier for us to stay on the top of the Robot Curve.

未來，我們可能不再看到人類工人，而只會看到機器人工人。

Robot Curve是 Marty Neumeier 在他的文章 The Robot Curve 中介紹的理論。在Robot Curve的理論中，機器人和人工智能將接管人類的工作，從一些常見的非技術工作領域到部分（或大部分）需要高度工作。在文章中，Neumeier 還表示，我們人類並沒有採取必要的行動來避免被機器人取代，而是實際上讓機器人更容易被取代。發生這種情況是因為我們強迫學校的學生使用一些低效的學習方式（或學習無用的東西）。沒有人可以阻止Robot Curve，我們只能適應它並儘力保持在它的頂端。

Robot Curve是 Neumeier 引入的一個概念，用於解釋隨著時間的推移機器人和人工智能將取代哪些工作領域。大多數工作會慢慢沿著Robot Curve向下移動，最終成為機器人可以做的工作。

Robot Curve的最低水平是「機械性工作」，如工廠工作和建築工人，幾乎不需要技能。這些工作是重複性的，即使沒有受過正規教育，幾乎每個人都可以從事這些工作。 「機械性工作」之上的曲線的下一個層次是「呆板工作」，如收銀員和速食服務人員。這些工作需要從事者與客戶進行某種程度上的交流。這些工作可能需要一定程度的教育，但幾乎所有受過教育的人都可以從事這些工作。下一個更高層次是「技術性工作」，如醫生、廚師等。這類工作通常需要高水平的技巧和思考。從事這類工作的人通常受過高等教育，並且專業的練習了他們的技能。這種工作通常只能由經過專門培訓的專業人員來完成，而且這些工作者不容易被他人或機械取代。

Robot Curve的頂點是「創造性工作」，涉及電腦程式設計師、導演、藝術家等工作。這種工作可能有點難以正式訓練，並且涉及新穎且不重複的過程。這些人必須善於創造世界上不存在的新想法。這類人的一些著名例子是Elon Musk（特斯拉和 SpaceX 的總裁）、Bill Gates（微軟的創始人和前任總裁）和Steve Jobs（蘋果的創始人和前任總裁）。 「明天的電腦程式設計師就是未來的巫師。」 Steam 和 Valve 的總裁 Gabe Newell 說。這些人處於Robot Curve的頂端，因為他們有足夠的創造力，可以無中生有。他們都是擁有《Robot Curve》中提到的 Neumeier Metaskills的人的好例子。

Robot Curve對今天和明天的人們都非常重要，它解釋說機器人正在取代越來越多的技術性工作。 Neumeier 介紹了機器人藥劑師作為一個強有力的例子，向我們展示了常識中的「技術性工作」已經緩緩走向Robot Curve的下層，他還宣稱這只是Robot Curve革命的開始。這意味著機器人將無情地一一搶走我們的許多工作。到目前為止，Robot Curve聽起來就像一場可怕的海嘯，將所有工作都吞噬殆盡。然而，根據 Neumeier 的研究，他認為 Robot Curve 不僅會破壞就業機會，還會為人類創造許多商機。

為了抓住自動化和人工智能帶來的新機遇，Neumeier 討論了一個叫做Metaskills的概念，幫助人們保持在Robot Curve的頂端。這些Meataskills是：感覺、夢想、創造和學習。我想以Elon Musk為例。他在自己的領域學到了很多東西，而且效率很高，他夢想著讓特斯拉的想法成真。最終，他通過努力實現了（在Metaskills中的「製造」）他的夢想。Elon Musk是一個有爭議的人物，但不可否認的是，他現在正站在Robot Curve的頂端。在他的示例中，如果你想保持在Robot Curve的頂部，我們可以看到Metaskills在未來的重要性。 Neumeier 表示，當前的教育系統無法教給學生這些Metaskills。因此，他強調了現在教育系統存在的問題。

Robot Curve表明我們需要更新教育系統。 Neumeier 說，我們現在給學生的教育並不能幫助他們保持在 Robot Curve 的最高水平。相反的，它使學生更容易被機器人和人工智能所取代。原因是現在學生在學校學習的主要是學術知識和測驗，這代表我們只是讓學生機器人只記住事物並在遠離現實世界的測驗中執行。 Neumeier 說人類已經具備製造機器人和 AI 的能力，教我們人類如何成為機器人有什麼意義？因此，Neumeier 覺得學校應該教授社會智能、系統邏輯和製造東西，因為這些是機器人和 AI 不擅長的事情。他還說：「學生應該進行基於項目的學習，而不是基於學科的學習。」因為他認為知識只是幫助人們完成某事的工具。他認為人們應該通過做不同的事情來學習知識，而不是僅僅記住人們永遠不會再使用的知識。在基於學科的學習中，人們通常從教科書和老師所說的話中學習。這樣，很難讓學生將他們在生活中學到的東西聯繫起來。在基於項目的學習中，人們通過做事而不是看教科書來學習。這種學習方式的好處是很容易在學生的學習內容和他們的生活之間建立牢固的聯繫，並使他們所學的東西成為他們可以在生活中使用的真正工具。

Robot Curve在未來勢不可擋，我們唯一能做的就是通過學習和使用Metaskills讓自己更難被取代，並在不同的領域發揮創造力。我相信，我們能想到的許多高技能工作在未來都會實現自動化。Robot Curve不僅會在未來發生，而且已經在發生。它將不斷創造和摧毀就業機會。如果我們有能力很好地使用Metaskills並具有創造力，那麼我們將更容易保持在Robot Curve的頂端。

Neumeier, M. (n.d.). The Robot Curve. MARTY NEUMEIER. Retrieved May 16, 2022, from https://www.martyneumeier.com/the-robot-curve