Concerns, Social Challenges, and Possible Dangers of Automation + Emerging Areas and Opportunities of Robotics Usage

By: Steve Wang

“I am inevitable.” This was what Thanos, the big purple alien, said in the movie Avengers: Endgame. That is also what automation might say if it was a real person. Just like Thanos, automation is good and bad from different points of view. However, unlike Thanos, it really is inevitable and there is no stopping it. Therefore, it is key that we understand a bit about what the future will look like regarding automation, followed by the dangers and the advantages it can bring to us. Doing so, we can be more prepared for what is coming and have a lesser chance of getting replaced or becoming obsolete.

In the future, automation will change how the world looks and works. According to Mckinsey, a global management consulting company, automation and machines will change the way we work. They predict that employment positions for activities which require mainly physical and manual work will decrease by 18 percent by 2030. Most of the time, this figure refers to work that is repetitive and can easily be automated. In fact, a lot of factories already use robots instead of humans. A good example is Tesla’s factories (Tesla, 2022). The CEO of Tesla, Elon Musk, claims that Tesla’s production lines are over 75 percent automated (Aregay, 2020). Additionally, jobs requiring basic cognitive skills will decrease by 28 percent. To put things into perspective, some basic cognitive skills include remembering information and differentiating between values, both of which robots will be able to do much better than humans in the future and some of those robots already do better.

Also, robots will be a more integral part of our daily lives. For example, in our homes, simple tasks such as cooking and cleaning might become totally automated. (The Telegraph, 2020)(FutureLearn, 2021). Another example is, driving may also become automated. To find this in the real world, we can look at the car manufacturer, Tesla, again. Currently, Tesla has made it so that the car can assist you while driving . A few things it can do are steering, accelerating, and breaking within the lane (Tesla). Even though it is already very impressive, in the future, cars should be able to perform all driving tasks on their own. A few other lesser known companies working on the same tasks are, Cruise, Waymo and Aurora Innovation Inc. They are just a few among many other companies that are aiming to deploy fully autonomous vehicle technology in the United States within the next two to three years (Shepardson et al., 2022).

Scientists theorize that automation will come in three waves (Cameron, 2018). First, the algorithmic wave. This probably means that at this time, the computer will be able to start solving a lot of problems by following a process or a set of rules. During that wave, there will be a low amount of jobs getting displaced. Next, comes the augmentation wave which probably means that robots will become a lot better. In the last wave they improved the software now they are going to improve the hardware. During that wave, a lot of machines will start replacing many manual tasks.This will be followed by autonomy which means that robots will be able to not only think for themselves but also respond to unexpected changes in the environment. (McClean, 2021). To sum it up, robots and AI will be a big part of our lives in the future, so it is important that we are prepared for what dangers and social challenges might arise. Automation is coming and in every wave it will increase. In the future a large number of things will be automated.

The result of automation being such a powerful thing is it might be very disruptive. One of the most obvious ones is, robots might replace humans at their jobs, which might lead to economic problems (FutureLearn, 2021).For instance, those people who are most likely to lose their jobs are low to medium income workers (Hawitt, 2017), who need money the most. They are the easiest to replace because their jobs are clearly repetitive (Hewitt, 2017). When that happens, those workers will take jobs from even lower wage workers. That will result in a lot of people losing their jobs (Brown, 2020). This makes it clear that automation can also affect the economy and society as a whole in bad ways. While this may not affect some people directly, it will definitely affect everyone in the long run.

Another one of the issues is, automation might create boredom inside and outside of the workplace. For example, in 2009, there were two pilots who were distracted by their laptops. That resulted in them missing the destination airport by 90 minutes. This situation clearly exemplifies how automation might lead to boredom. This is not the only example. In fact, boredom is very common throughout workplaces and has been recognized as an important area to study further (Hewitt, 2017) and with automation it may become worse.

Furthermore, it has been proven that robots have a negative impact on worker income. An article written by MIT Management Sloan School (Hewitt, 2017) reported that for every robot added per 1,000 workers in the U.S, wages decreased by 0.42% and the employment-to-population ratio went down by 0.2 percent - to date. In simple words, it means the loss of about 400,000 jobs. The impact is more clearly seen within areas where robots are deployed. The researchers, Acemoglu and Restrepo, looked at robot usage in 19 industries for 722 commuting zones. They found a negative relationship between a commuting zone’s exposure to robots and its post-1990 labor market outcomes (Brown, 2020). To put things in perspective, between 1990 and 2007, the increase in robots (about one per every thousand workers) reduced the average employment-to-population ratio in a zone by 0.39 percentage points, average wages by 0.77% compared to zones with no exposure to robots, they found. Based on this information, we can conclude that adding one robot to an area reduces employment in that commuting zone by about six workers (Brown, 2020). The research mentioned above was conducted in America, but it is also a good indicator for changes and effects in other areas of the word. Particularly for developed countries like Taiwan.

After looking at the information in the last section, some might come to the conclusion that robots and automation are bad. Another thing that might reinforce their opinion is, robots have and are going to take a lot of jobs from humans. One good example is bank tellers being replaced with ATMs. (Computer Hope, 2020) Nevertheless, they are not entirely correct. According to research focused on robots, robot-driven productivity accounts for 10% of the total GDP over 14 years and forecasts of continued automation-driven productivity growth of up to 1.4% annually over the next 50 years. Furthermore, they enable companies to remain or become competitive. This point is especially important for small-to-medium sized businesses that are the backbone of both developed and developing country economies (International Federation of Robotics). Other than that, it also helps large companies to increase their competitiveness by increasing the speed of product development and delivery. Increased usage of robots would also enable companies in high cost countries to reshore their domestic base parts of the supply chain that they have previously outsourced to sources of cheaper labor (International Federation of Robotics).

Other than that, reshoring has many other benefits like having greater control over your supply chain, reducing lead times, having fewer import traffics, just to name a few (Anderson, 2020). To put things into context, for many years, many U.S. companies were offshoring to other countries. Sending the manufacturing plants to countries like China, Malaysia, Vietnam, and other countries where the cost of labor was lower. This continued until the Great Recession that happened during the year of 2008 (Anderson, 2020). Companies found other ways to cut down costs by reshoring and returning businesses to the U.S to create jobs for unemployed Americans (KENTON, 2021). This suggests that automation brings opportunities to many companies from developed economies who have moved their manufacturing to low cost areas.

Even though there are many downsides to automation, there are many upsides too. One of the most important points people care about is the increase in productivity, efficiency, quality and consistency in some settings. Industrial robots can be very accurate, even to fractions of an inch, making them particularly useful in the manufacturing of microelectronics. Another huge point is robots don't wear out, they can repeat the same thing continuously without getting tired. While doing so, they can also ensure they get it right because some robots have sensors and actuators which are more capable compared to humans. On top of that, these advantages will allow them to be able to work in environments unsafe for humans, such as with dangerous chemicals or in areas of high radiation (FutureLearn, 2021).

Robots and automation help companies a lot, but what about the employees? According to the same article written by the International Federation of Robotics, the greatest threat to employment is not automation but an inability to remain competitive. In other words, it means that if you can remain competent enough, automation and robotics will not cause problems for you when you look for jobs. Others arguing for the same point may say, automation has led to an overall increase in labor demand and positive impact on wages. Another point people worry about is robots taking the jobs of middle income and skilled workers. In hindsight, it might seem like a bad thing, but when that happens, it will also encourage people to become more skilled in order to survive (International Federation of Robotics). This may seem unfair or even cruel to some but this is something that will happen. The US automotive industry is a case in point. Between the years 2010 and 2015, the US automotive industry has installed more than 60,000 industrial robots. During the same period, the number of employees in the US automotive sector increased by 230,000. Similarly, in the German automotive sector the number of robots in operation increased to more than 93,000 units in 2015, a rise of about 14,000 compared to 2010. In that same period, employment rose by about 93,000 jobs to 813,000. Evidently, it can be seen from these two examples that automation and robots can have a hand in creating more jobs for employees. All this proves that automation and robots can create many opportunities for society.

After looking at what the future automation is going to look like, followed by some of the advantages and disadvantages of it, the author of this article thinks it is safe to say that just like every breakthrough change in technology, automation has its own advantages and disadvantages. Regardless of whether you agree automation is a good thing or not, it is definitely coming (McClinton, 2020). It means that we have to be prepared to face the challenges the inevitable throws at us when it eventually comes. In order to get the best outcome for our futures, a major change in our education system is needed to prepare people for this automated reality of the future.

How education can help prepare for the inevitable will be discussed in another article.

1. FutureLearn. (2021, November 5). The future of robotics: How will robots change the world? - FutureLearn. FutureLearn. https://www.futurelearn.com/info/blog/general/introduction-robotics-future-robots

2. Hewitt, J. (2017, November 30). This is the hidden risk of automation that no one is talking about | World Economic Forum. World Economic Forum. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/11/automation-automated-job-risk-robot-bored-boredom-effort-fourth-industrial-revolution/

3. Brown, S. (2020, July 29). A new study measures the actual impact of robots on jobs. It’s significant. | MIT Sloan. MIT Sloan School of Management. https://mitsloan.mit.edu/ideas-made-to-matter/a-new-study-measures-actual-impact-robots-jobs-its-significant

4. McClinton, D. (2020, December 31). Automation Is No Longer Optional—It’s Inevitable. Thomas. https://www.thomasnet.com/insights/automation-is-no-longer-optional-it-s-inevitable/

6. Tanvir. (2021, December 8). why robots are bad for society – Lisbdnet.com. Lisbdnet.Com. https://lisbdnet.com/why-robots-are-bad-for-society/

7. Aregay, T. (2020, October 13). Elon Musk Says Tesla’s Production Lines Already Over 75 Percent Automated | Torque News. Torque News. https://www.torquenews.com/11826/elon-musk-says-tesla-s-production-lines-already-over-75-percent-automated

9. Tesla. (n.d.). Autopilot | Tesla. Future of Driving. Retrieved April 22, 2022, from https://www.tesla.com/autopilot

10. The Telegraph. (2020). “Kitchen robot” that will cook meals from scratch unveiled—YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GyEHRXA_aA4

11. Computer Hope. (2020, March 6). What jobs are being taken over by robots and computers? Computer Hope. https://www.computerhope.com/issues/ch001799.htm

12. Toby McClean. (2021, April 1). The Path From Automation To Autonomy Is Swarming With Activity. Forbes. https://www.forbes.com/sites/forbestechcouncil/2021/04/01/the-path-from-automation-to-autonomy-is-swarming-with-activity/

13. Anderson, M. (2020, May 12). Reshoring Advantages and Disadvantages [For Medical Devices]. ATL Technology. https://atltechnology.com/blog/reshoring-advantages-disadvantages/

14. International Federation of Robotics. (n.d.). International Federation of Robotics. International Federation of Robotics. Retrieved May 13, 2022, from https://ifr.org/robots-create-jobs#:~%20text=Increasingly%2C%20robots%20are%20used%20to,quality%20and%20higher%2Dpaid%20tasks.

15. KENTON, W. (2021, October 6). Reshoring Definition. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reshoring.asp

16. Eurostat Statistics Explained. (2018, December 6). Glossary:Commuting zone—Statistics Explained. Eurostat Statistics Explained. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Glossary:Commuting_zone

17. Cameron, E. (2018, June 2). How will automation impact jobs: PwC UK. PwC. https://www.pwc.co.uk/services/economics/insights/the-impact-of-automation-on-jobs.html

18. Shepardson, D., Jin, H., & White, J. (2022, February 2). Self-driving car companies zoom ahead, leaving U.S. regulators behind | Reuters. Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/self-driving-car-companies-zoom-ahead-leaving-us-regulators-behind-2022-02-02/

19. Tesla. (2022, April 2). Flying Through Giga Berlin. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-4yOx1CnXE

Chinese Writing here:

「我是不可避免的。」 這就是紫色外星人薩諾斯在電影《復仇者聯盟：終局之戰》中說的。 如果它是一個真實的人，這也是自動化可能會說的。 就像薩諾斯一樣，從不同的角度來看，自動化有好有壞。 但與薩諾斯不同的是，這確實是不可避免的，而且無法阻止。 因此，關鍵是我們要了解自動化的未來會是什麼樣子，它可以給我們帶來的危險和優勢。 這樣做，我們可以為即將發生的事情做好準備，並減少被替換或過時的機會。

未來，自動化將改變世界的面貌和運作方式。據全球管理諮詢公司麥肯錫稱，自動化和機器將改變我們的工作方式。他們預測，到 2030 年，主要需要體力工作的就業崗位將減少 18%。大多數時候，這個數字是指重複性且易於自動化的工作。事實上，很多工廠已經使用機器人代替人類。一個很好的例子是特斯拉的工廠。特斯拉首席執行官埃隆馬斯克聲稱，特斯拉的生產線自動化程度超過 75%。此外，需要基本認知技能的工作將減少 28%。換個角度來看，一些基本的認知技能包括記憶信息和區分價值觀，這兩種機器人在未來都將比人類做得更好，其中一些機器人已經做得更好。

此外，機器人將成為我們日常生活中更不可或缺的一部分。 例如，在我們的家中，烹飪和清潔等簡單任務可能會完全自動化。 另一個例子是，駕駛也可能變得自動化。 要在現實世界中找到這一點，我們可以再看看汽車製造商特斯拉。 目前，特斯拉已經做到了，讓汽車可以在駕駛時為您提供幫助。 它可以做的一些事情是在車道內轉向、加速和突破（特斯拉）。 儘管它已經非常令人印象深刻，但在未來，汽車應該能夠自行執行所有駕駛任務。 其他幾家從事相同任務的鮮為人知的公司是 Cruise、Waymo 和 Aurora Innovation Inc。它們只是眾多其他公司中的一小部分，這些公司的目標是在未來兩到三年內在美國部署全自動駕駛汽車技術。

科學家們推測，自動化將分三波湧現。首先，算法浪潮。這大概意味著這個時候，計算機將能夠通過遵循一個流程或一套規則來開始解決很多問題。在這一波浪潮中，將有少量工作崗位被取代。接下來是增強浪潮，這可能意味著機器人會變得更好。在上一波浪潮中，他們改進了軟體，現在他們將改進硬體。在這一波浪潮中，許多機器將開始取代許多手動任務。隨之而來的是自主性，這意味著機器人不僅能夠獨立思考，還能對環境中的意外變化做出反應。 （麥克林，2021）。機器人和人工智能將成為我們未來生活的重要組成部分，因此我們必須為可能出現的危險和社會挑戰做好準備。自動化即將到來，並且在每一波浪潮中都會增加。未來，很多事情都將實現自動化。

自動化如此強大的結果是它可能非常具有破壞性。最明顯的問題之一是，機器人可能會在工作中取代人類，這可能會導致經濟問題 例如，最有可能失業的人是中低收入工人，誰最需要錢。他們是最容易被替換的，因為他們的工作顯然是重複的。當這種情況發生時，這些工人將從工資更低的工人手中搶走工作。這將導致很多人失去工作。這清楚地表明，自動化也會以不良方式影響整個經濟和社會。雖然這可能不會直接影響某些人，但從長遠來看，它肯定會影響每個人。

另一個問題是，自動化可能會在工作場所內外造成無聊。例如，在 2009 年，有兩名飛行員因筆記型電腦而分心。這導致他們錯過了目的地機場 90 分鐘。這種情況清楚地說明了自動化如何導致無聊。這不是唯一的例子。事實上，無聊在整個工作場所非常普遍，並且已被認為是需要進一步研究的重要領域，而隨著自動化，它可能會變得更糟。

此外，已經證明機器人對工人收入有負面影響。麻省理工學院斯隆管理學院 撰寫的一篇文章報告稱，美國每增加 1,000 名工人，工資就會下降 0.42%，就業人口比率下降 0.2%。簡單來說，這意味著失去大約 400,000 個工作崗位。在部署機器人的區域內可以更清楚地看到這種影響。研究人員 Acemoglu 和 Restrepo 研究了 19 個行業中 722 個通勤區的機器人使用情況。他們發現通勤區接觸機器人與其 1990 年後勞動力市場結果之間存在負相關關係。換個角度來看，在 1990 年至 2007 年期間，機器人的增加，使一個地區的平均就業人口比率降低了 0.39 個百分點，與沒有機器人的地區相比，平均工資降低了 0.77%。他們發現，接觸機器人。基於這些信息，我們可以得出結論，在一個區域添加一個機器人會減少該通勤區域的就業人數約 6 名工人。上述研究是在美國進行的，但它也是該詞其他領域變化和影響的良好指標。尤其是台灣等發達國家。

看了上一節的信息後，有些人可能會得出機器人和自動化不好的結論。可能強化他們觀點的另一件事是，機器人已經並且將要從人類那裡搶走很多工作。一個很好的例子是銀行櫃員被自動櫃員機取代。 然而，它們並不完全正確。根據以機器人為重點的研究，機器人驅動的生產力在 14 年內佔 GDP 總額的 10%，並預測未來 50 年自動化驅動的生產力每年將增長高達 1.4%。此外，它們使公司能夠保持或變得具有競爭力。這一點對於作為發達國家和發展中國家經濟支柱的中小型企業來說尤其重要。除此之外，它還可以通過提高產品開發和交付速度來幫助大公司提高競爭力。機器人使用的增加將使高成本國家的公司，能夠將其先前外包給廉價勞動力來源的供應鏈，轉至國內基礎建設部分。

除此之外，回流還有許多其他好處，例如更好地控制您的供應鏈、縮短交貨時間、減少進口流量等等。綜上所述，多年來，許多美國公司都將業務外包到其他國家。將製造工廠送到中國、馬來西亞、越南等勞動力成本較低的國家。這種情況一直持續到 2008 年發生的大衰退。公司找到了其他降低成本的方法，即將企業回流並返回美國，為失業的美國人創造就業機會。這表明自動化為許多來自發達經濟體的公司帶來了機會，這些公司已經將製造轉移到低成本地區。

儘管自動化有許多缺點，但也有許多優點。人們關心的最重要的一點是在某些環境中提高生產力、效率、質量和一致性。工業機器人可以非常精確，甚至可以精確到幾分之一英寸，這使得它們在微電子製造中特別有用。另一個重要的一點是機器人不會磨損，它們可以連續重複同樣的事情而不會感到疲倦。在這樣做的同時，他們還可以確保他們做對了，因為一些機器人擁有比人類更強大的傳感器和執行器。最重要的是，這些優勢將使他們能夠在對人類不安全的環境中工作，例如使用危險化學品或在高輻射區域。

機器人和自動化對公司有很大幫助，但員工呢？根據國際機器人聯合會撰寫的同一篇文章，對就業的最大威脅不是自動化，而是無法保持競爭力。換句話說，這意味著如果你能保持足夠的能力，自動化和機器人技術在你找工作時不會給你帶來問題。持相同觀點的其他人可能會說，自動化導致勞動力需求的整體增加​​並對工資產生了積極影響。人們擔心的另一點是機器人搶走中等收入和技術工人的工作。事後看來，這似乎是一件壞事，但當這種情況發生時，它也會鼓勵人們為了生存而變得更加熟練。這對某些人來說可能看起來不公平甚至殘忍，但這是會發生的事情。美國汽車業就是一個很好的例子。從 2010 年到 2015 年，美國汽車行業已經安裝了超過 60,000 台工業機器人。同期，美國汽車行業的員工人數增加了 230,000 人。同樣，在德國汽車行業，2015 年運行的機器人數量增加到超過 93,000 台，比 2010 年增加了約 14,000 台。同期，就業人數增加了約 93,000 個，達到 813,000 個。顯然，從這兩個例子可以看出，自動化和機器人可以幫助為員工創造更多的就業機會。這一切都證明自動化和機器人可以為社會創造很多機會。

看了未來的自動化會是什麼樣子，然後是它的一些優點和缺點，本文作者認為可以肯定地說，就像技術的每一次突破性變革一樣，自動化也有其自身的優勢和劣勢。 無論您是否同意自動化是一件好事，它肯定會到來。 這意味著我們必須準備好面對不可避免的挑戰，當它最終到來時。 為了讓我們的未來獲得最好的結果，我們的教育系統需要進行重大變革，以使人們為未來的這種自動化現實做好準備。

教育如何幫助為不可避免的事情做好準備 會在另一篇文章中說到。